Six Things to Know About the U.S. Elections
Across the U.S. millions will head to the polls today to cast their ballots in the 2024 primary elections. March 5 is ‘Super Tuesday,’ one of the most significant dates in the U.S. electoral calendar when more than a dozen states and territories hold primary elections to select the Democratic and Republican nominees for President, as well as other offices and ballot issues.
About one third of the delegates to the Republican and Democratic nominating conventions are typically awarded on Super Tuesday. While it is expected that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will win their respective primaries without any serious challenge, the results of Super Tuesday will shape the U.S. presidential election – and have broader global impact.
Here are six things to watch for this Super Tuesday, from Highgate Senior Associate Director and former communications advisor in the U.S. Congress, Jenna Galper:
Will Nikki Haley drop out, fully paving the way for Trump’s nomination? Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is Trump’s only major challenger, but after a string of heavy defeats, another poor performance on Super Tuesday could bring her long-shot campaign to an end. Haley has received significant support from institutional Republican donors to keep her in the race and has stated she will not drop out until the summer nominating convention. However, her performance today may reveal a change in the ‘Never Trump’ crowd’s appetite to continue backing efforts to avoid a likely Trump nomination. There is also speculation that, were Haley to drop out, she may refuse to endorse Trump or even run as an independent herself, which would significantly alter the dynamics of the general election.
President Biden’s performance on Super Tuesday – particularly amongst young voters – could either dispel doubts or reveal vulnerabilities for the general election. This will greatly impact his campaign narrative in the months ahead, as Biden faces declining approval ratings (despite positive economic indicators) and concerns about his age and mental acuity. A recent New York Times poll found that a 73% of Americans believe Biden is ‘just too old to be an effective president. Additionally, in the recent Michigan primary, a campaign to vote ‘uncommitted’ in protest against Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war garnered over 100,000 votes, or 13% of turnout. While an uncommitted vote on this scale is not expected in any of the Super Tuesday states, a growing protest movement may influence Biden’s foreign policy thinking.
While Trump is expected to handily defeat Nikki Haley in the Super Tuesday primaries, the margins of victory and demographics of his supporters will be indicative of how the general election plays out. Based on exit poll analysis from early contests conducted by ABC News and the Washington Post, Haley has maintained strong support amongst independents, moderates, and university-educated voters, while Trump’s base has shifted much further to the right as compared to 2016. As they look ahead to the general election, both Biden and Trump will be seeking to carve out support from the political center. How Trump performs with suburban voters in the Super Tuesday states will also be critical since Biden’s support in the suburbs was key to his 2020 victory against Trump.
As voters head to the polls, Trump still faces numerous unresolved legal challenges; their impact on the election remains unclear. In the past two months, Trump has been ordered to pay hundreds of millions of dollars across two separate civil fraud and defamation cases. He still faces four separate cases relating to: attempting to overturn the Georgia 2020 election; fomenting the January 6 2021 insurrection; mishandling classified documents while in office; and falsifying business records about payments to cover up an extramarital affair. More than 30 states have filed formal charges against Trump’s presidential candidacy. Yesterday, the Supreme Court ruled that Colorado (which holds its primary today) cannot remove Trump from the ballot, despite a Constitutional amendment banning insurrectionists from office. The Supreme Court is also still weighing whether Trump has immunity against charges of election interference. These legal battles will stretch into the general election, and potentially into a future Trump presidency – uncharted territory for American democracy.
Super Tuesday sets the stage for the U.S. Presidential Election in November 2024, which will have enormous consequences for U.S. foreign policy. The future of U.S. aid to Ukraine hangs in the balance. Trump has called for an end to the war and is campaigning on an ‘America First’ platform which strongly criticises the use of taxpayer dollars for foreign aid. Trump’s ongoing influence on the Republican Party drove Congressmembers to link Ukraine aid with strengthened measures to curb immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border, creating a stalemate that threatened a government shutdown.
Biden and Trump offer dramatically different perspectives on America’s role on the global stage. While Biden is campaigning on the need to protect the integrity of democracy both at home and abroad, Trump advocates an isolationist policy and is calling for the U.S.’s re-evaluation of, or withdrawal from, NATO. Europe and the world will be watching to see how Americans vote on Super Tuesday and what that means for Election Day in November.