Reflections on President Joe Biden and General Secretary Xi Jinping’s meeting in San Francisco
Yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s General Secretary Xi Jinping held their first high-level meeting in a year during the APEC Summit in San Francisco.
Highgate Associate Director and former Beijing-based policy analyst, Toby Tanner, said: “In a context where both leaders are grappling with extensive economic and political challenges at home, the meeting was a mutual attempt to stabilise the relationship and reduce the risks of military escalation. It was also a forum for both sides to gain a more nuanced understanding of the long-term areas for bilateral cooperation, competition and conflict.”
Here are five key takeaways from the meeting.
Both sides need to steady their economic ships: As Xi grapples with a domestic economic slowdown and Biden seeks to shore up the U.S. economy ahead of the election, it has become a mutual goal to stabilise the economic relationship after the relentless headwinds of recent years. Whilst the rhetoric remained high level and no critical issues were broached, the meeting has set a platform for progress on less sensitive commercial exchanges. The standing ovation Xi received by U.S. business leaders at an event later that day spoke to this sentiment.
Despite the rhetoric, military miscalculation would be a disaster: Since China suspended military communication in retaliation to Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan, we have seen a spike in inflammatory rhetoric and military exercises from both sides. Yet the decision to reinstate high-level military-to-military conversations and maintain an open line of communication shows that when push comes to shove, neither side can afford for a miscommunication to descend into a crisis.
A new platform has been created for quick diplomatic wins: Whether its cooperation on the fight against fentanyl, streamlining visa applications or collaborating on panda conservation efforts, this meeting has opened the door to swift progress on less sensitive matters in the relationship.
For Xi, the Taiwan issue is as non-negotiable as ever: Xi used the forum to reaffirm China’s non-negotiable stance on the Taiwan question, which he described as the “most important and sensitive issue in US-China Relations”. Whilst meeting readouts have shown an improved understanding that Xi does not intend to take Taiwan by force anytime soon, there will be an expectation on the China side for the U.S. to tone down their rhetoric on the matter.
The US-China relationship remains one crisis away from going two steps backwards: In the post meeting press-conference, Biden affirmed when questioned that he perceived Xi to be a dictator in a political system that is “totally different” to the U.S. This remark was immediately criticised by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs as “extremely incorrect and irresponsible political manipulation.” A diplomatic scuffle unfolding hours after the talks is a stark reminder that any major political or security crisis has the potential to walk the relationship two steps back after a baby step forward.